One year, an emotional win. The next year, a statement win.
Deterministic delivered both in back-to-back renewals of the Grade 1 Manhattan Stakes in 2025 and 2026 at Saratoga Race Course – the first a day later than expected thanks to a weather-related rescheduling and the second in its proper place on Saturday’s Belmont Stakes Day undercard.
The latest victory, the fifth straight for the 5-year-old son of Liam’s Map, came by a half-length under Kendrick Carmouche in course-record time for the 1 3/16 miles. Deterministic won the 1 3/16-mile Manhattan in 1:50.50, topping Say The Word’s previous mark of 1:51.40 set in an allowance win during the spectator free pandemic meeting in 2020.
“He’s different yo, I’m telling you,” Carmouche said. “The feeling you get. The whole way, too. Especially when he pins his ears back. He chills in the paddock but when he’s out there, he’s all about business. All about business. Me, too.”
Carmouche saw those ears pin back a few times in the $1 million Manhattan, previously run at 1 1/4 miles downstate at Belmont Park but shortened because of Saratoga’s Mellon Turf Course configuration. Deterministic’s narrow victory over Integration in last year’s Manhattan came at 9 furlongs on the inner turf after the race was moved to that course after heavy rains on Belmont Day.
Different races, different courses but the same determination and outcome.
The 9-2 third choice in the field of nine behind European import and 2-1 favorite Bright Picture and 5-2 second choice and recently crowned New York-bred Horse of the Year Rhetorical, Deterministic expected to be on the lead early in the Manhattan. He broke just a “tick slow,” according to Carmouche and didn’t give any trouble sliding behind Rhetorical past the finish the first time and into the first turn.
Deterministic tracked Rhetorical, winner of the Grade 1 Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic on Kentucky Derby Day last time out, through strong early fractions of :22.99 and :47.01. He gave Carmouche most of the same signs he’d given in his run of five graded stakes victories to the delight of his pilot.
“He was standing perfect, he just left a tick slow,” Carmouche said of the break. “Once I saw Irad cross over, I just let my horse run a little, just to let the pace go a little quicker. Once we got on the backside I eased him off of Irad and man, he was sitting in my hands so perfect.”
Rhetorical continued to lead through 6 furlongs in 1:09.83 with Deterministic just a half-length back to his outside and Make Me King another length back in third down on the hedge.
“By the time I got to the half mile pole, his ears started going back and he was telling me he wanted to get after him, you know?” Carmouche said. “Then by the time I got the five-sixteenths pole I squeezed him a little and then he really said ‘send me home.’ ”
Deterministic drew alongside Rhetorical approaching the stretch and the two started to separate from the seven others. Rhetorical tried to spurt away approaching the eighth pole and only held a narrow lead past the mark. Deterministic wore him down from there and Carmouche pointed to the crowd a few strides from home with the job just about done.
“I knew the last eighth of a mile, the way he had his ears pinned back, they were never catching him,” Carmouche said. “What a sensational job by Miguel Clement and his team. He was 10 times sharper than last race. He was probably a tad short last time and still won. We knew going into this race we’d be even more stronger going in this race. I’m just so pleased.”
Clement and the ownership group of St Elias Stable, Ken Langone, Steven Duncker and Vicarage Stable were equally pleased, after celebrating with more than a share of sorrow last year when Deterministic won the Manhattan.
That victory came only about two weeks after trainer Christophe Clement passed away at the age of 59. Emotions flowed that day and again when Deterministic won the Grade 1 Fourstardave during the proper Saratoga meet.
Tears of joy were present Saturday, mixed with plenty of pride.
“He’s a tremendous racehorse,” Clement said. “He’s a pure athlete. We are very privileged to be part of the ride. He’s top class. I’ve always thought he was the best turf horse in the country. He proved that today. I thought we deserved the Eclipse Award last year, but I’m biased. Hopefully, everyone will understand why I think he’s the leader of the division.”
Deterministic won three of four starts last season but didn’t race after the Fourstardave. He finished fourth in the Eclipse Award voting behind Breeders’ Cup runners Notable Speech, Rebel’s Romance and Ethical Diamond.
Clement hopes for that Breeders’ Cup chance this year, most likely in the Mile when the championship event returns to Keeneland Race Course in late October. The Manhattan didn’t offer an automatic bid into the Breeders’ Cup like two other races on the Belmont Day card, but there’s time with the Fourstardave on tap for the Saratoga meet.
Clement said he’d keep Deterministic, now the winner of nine of 15 starts and $2,634,765, at shorter trips for a few reasons.
“He’s top class,” he said. “He’s proven at 7 furlongs and he can stay if he wants to. He’s very versatile. You can switch him off, you can engage him. … From here we’ll figure it out race by race. He’ll be a more attractive stallion prospect if I keep him closer cutting back to a mile.”
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