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Joe’s Top 10: Picking winners, or trying to

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The more I think about this, I’m really not sure these are in any order – nor could they be. They are 10 moments in a year of following Thoroughbred racing in a variety of capacities and locations. They’re big and small, personal and public, famous and unknown. They’re also great markers of time, impact, involvement, life.

But back to the list…

8. Picking Winners. This has nothing to do with a big score or a lost opportunity, torn tickets or a trip to the IRS window, only the thrill of being right in a game where that’s not easy. I was right a few times in 2013, winning the TIHR steeplechase handicapping challenge over Sean and Tom (they say there’s a case of Guinness to the winner) and looking smart (at least sometimes) on the NYRA handicapping show Talking Horses with Andy Serling and Eric Donovan at Saratoga.

There were others, and the wrong choices don’t make anybody’s top 10 list, but the highlights are fun to look at now.

On the website, I sewed up the title by going 4-for-5 at Aiken late in the season. How? Don’t ask me. Around here, we always say, “Go with your gut.” I remember sitting down to handicap those races – hastily – and just choosing horses that came to me. Street Fight, General Partner, Brilliant Match in the first three. Each won. I missed the fourth race, then won the finale with Alajmal. No betting of course, so no money made but a satisfied feeling. And lest you think I was picking favorites, General Partner was one of two wins on the YEAR for his trainer.

More publicly, Serling, Donovan and Maggie Wolfendale recruited me to help with the nine jump races at Saratoga over the summer. Serling went 0-for-9 in 2012 and vowed to never try again. I hope he takes another swing, because it’s not that difficult, but every Thursday, I sat in on the Talking Horses show before the races and analyzed the one or two jump races on the card. I loved it. NYRA’s TV crew (on all sides of the cameras and microphones) is as good as it gets.

I won the opener with Martini Brother, though Serling put me on the hot seat by questioning the logic of picking a horse coming in off back-to-back wins while making a case against another (Dr. Skip) with the same record. Well . . . as good as Dr. Skip looked, he wasn’t Martini Brother – a son of A.P. Indy and Grade 1 winner Island Sand trained by Jonathan Sheppard. Martini Brother won (and paid $7.30) while Dr. Skip finished fifth as the slight favorite.

Bad picks, late scratches, near-misses and some ribbing from Serling via Twitter defined the next few weeks. And then I got one right again, picking Bluegrass Summer at 9-2. He came in off a middling fifth four weeks earlier, but had sharpened at the farm, switched jockeys and was – for a Sheppard runner – somewhat under the radar. He got to the front in the stretch, then held off longshot Call Me Sonny by a neck. Favorite Kingdom was third. Serling was impressed and offered a handshake in the boxes as the horses galloped out. He also gave me my ROI numbers.

The best parts about the TV gig were the questions. After my 5-10 minutes on Talking Horses, the show went to a break and I stepped off the stage. Every time, a spectator walked up to thank me for the insight and then asked a question. What about this? How come this happens? How do I find out about…? One guy was analyzing times and thought he had a new angle (I let him down easy). Another was comparing English form to American. Don’t ever let it be said that people don’t pay attention to the jump races at the track. They might bet less than they do on the flat races, they might not devote the same amount of time to the handicapping process, but they’re paying attention and appreciate any input we can give them.

And a few winners don’t hurt.

The start of Joe’s list.

Bluegrass Summer’s Saratoga win.